Models--Simple and Complex

Resumo: The big question addressed in this talk is Do simple models outperform complex ones? In short, is there any advantage to constructing a model with lots of states, interactions, and variables as opposed to building smaller, simpler models insofar as the model's utility is concerned? To answer this question, we will consider what we mean by a "model" and by "performance" using examples from the fields of physics, music, and epidemiology.